There is news on the real estate horizon: the decrease in Paris property prices is slowing down. This trend is expected to continue in January 2025.
Here’s the takeaway from the new findings for the third quarter of 2024, which we at 56Paris are happy to pass along to you.
The Paris Chamber of Notaries
Every quarter, we take stock of real estate transactions that have occurred in our city.
This detailed news comes from the Paris Chamber of Notaries. Their latest report shows what happened for the third quarter of the year, in July, August and September 2024.
Following the trend we’ve seen for numerous months now, prices have been on a slight decline.
But the notaries also make predictions for what’s likely to happen in the next quarter, leading us into 2025.
Continued decreases, but a milder dip
Let’s start with the bad news: In our second-quarter blog post, we wrote that quarter-to-quarter Paris real estate prices were down, but stabilizing. Ultimately they were moving very little, including a very modest decrease last quarter of -0.4%, or less than half a percent. That is still true in the 3rd quarter—with even more light at the end of the tunnel.
The average price per square meter in Paris now, in the 3rd quarter, is 9,500 €/m² (slightly higher than the 9,490 €/m² predicted by the notaries in the second quarter).
That’s down -5.5% compared to last year.
Transaction volume (the number of properties sold) is also still decreasing (coming in at -11% year to year), but far less than it had been.In the 1st quarter of 2024, for example, the number of properties sold was down by 22%. This recovery can be attributed to the slight decrease in interest rates in June of this year, which has helped stabilize the market.
The current report suggests that credit access is becoming more “fluid” (rates were at 3.3% in September). In our last notarial figures post, we wrote about the sharp increase in interest rates that took place from 2022–2023.
Not only is the decrease in Paris property prices a bit lower than in the previous quarter, but this current report suggests we may be at the lowest point, with hope that things will stabilize soon.
Hopeful predictions for the next quarter
And now the good news! The notaries predict that over the next three-month period, the dip in Paris property prices will continue to abate, perhaps aided by factors such as more interest rate cuts.
As we noted in our second-quarter post, the European Central Bank (ECB)’s two recent drops in benchmark rates had an impact.
Across Europe, banks use this figure to determine their own mortgage rates. So this favorable news for buyers has gradually worked its way through the system.
And while we may not have experienced a full turnaround or rebound, the decrease is not as steep, and recovery seems to be in sight.
If we look at 2024 so far, property prices year to year were down -6.6% in the second quarter but only -5.5% this quarter.
Furthermore, based on avant-contrats (preliminary contracts signed to date), the notaries expect the dip in property prices to flatten to -1 to -3% year to year by January, 2025, with a figure of -2.5% for January.
Most encouragingly, the notaries predict that the market will soon see the bottom of this curve (in prices and transaction volume).
Looking ahead, they indicate that the average price per square meter in Paris by January 2025 could be 9,360 €/m², meaning an overall year to year decrease of only -3.2%.
We will update you here in the next few months.
Digging into the subtleties of the Paris real estate market
Of course, the quarterly report takes an average of the whole property market in Paris.
But in reality, nuances are everywhere.
One takeaway is that prices in the center of Paris—the 1st through 9th arrondissements (districts)—and the 16th district all remain above 10,000€/m². As a matter of fact, they lie between 10,000€/m² and 16,030€/m². Also, in the popular 11th and 17th districts, average prices are just below and above that 10,000€/m² mark.
Keep in mind: While the latest net statistical price averages from the Paris Chamber of Notaries are vital sign posts, it’s important to keep in mind that buyers can expect to pay more for particularly attractive properties in prime locations.
Within the 16th, we have this stunning Arc de Triomphe view apartment with a terrace and balconies for sale. With two/three bedrooms and two bathrooms, it lies just steps away from the Champs Élysées and the Golden Triangle.
Fully renovated with high-quality materials, the elegant air-conditioned property combines Parisian charm with modern comforts.
In a nod to the 17th district’s rise in status, we offer this Parc Monceau top-floor property that epitomizes refined urban living. In close proximity to the iconic park, and surrounded by a vibrant array of shops, restaurants, and cafes, the residence is perfectly positioned for both convenience and sophistication.
In a rare twist of chance, two staff rooms on the 6th floor offer potential for a 200 square foot studio in this remarkable property.
The unique traits of Paris’ most desirable districts
Two Left Bank districts in Paris—the 6th and 7th—rise above the 13,000 € per square meter mark.
But while the 6th district remains, overall, the most expensive—ahead of the 7th—the two most expensive areas in this third quarter are both in the 7th: Invalides (at 16,030€/m²), followed by the prestigious Saint-Thomas-d'Aquin (15,430 €), home of our 56Paris office.
Interesting as well is the distribution of prices. While the 7th district overall is at 13,480€/m², the two most expensive quarters within the district are well above that mark, while the two least expensive ones sit well below (both Gros-Caillou and École-Militaire are in the 12,000€/m²).
There is not such a divide in the 6th district, where prices are far more tightly clustered. Odeon (14,950 €/m2) and Saint-Germain-des-Prés (14,020 €/m2) are the highest-priced quarters, and the other two (La Monnaie and Notre-Dame-des–Champs) are not far from the average price.
Even more striking in the 7th district is the fact that the two least expensive quarters are even showing price increases this quarter! (Gros-Caillou has increased 2.6% year to year and École-Militaire has risen 0.7%.) In contrast, none of the quarters in the 6th district has increased.
More price increases in the third quarter of 2024
The Paris Chamber of Notaries report indicates a dramatic increase in the Madeleine quarter of the 8th district. At 13 590 €/m2, it has risen 18.6% year on year.
If there are no figures for the nearby Champs-Elysees quarter, this is because there were not enough transactions to provide them.
Indeed, this international neighborhood, bordered by the Champs-Elysées, the avenue Montaigne, and the avenue George V, is an area where properties are very desirable and come on the market less frequently.
We happen to have an airy, fully renovated haven: an exclusive, off-market duplex on the 5th and 6th floors of a remarkable period building with elevator and quadruple exposure, offering luxury and tranquility on a quiet residential street.
We also have an elegant, air-conditioned two-bedroom apartment on avenue Montaigne, with a 210-square-foot balcony and a 6th-floor view. A large foyer with a powder room leads to a spacious living and dining area. A separate kitchen is fully equipped. Both bedrooms include ensuite baths and walk-in closets, and one gives onto the balcony.
Here to help you buy Paris real estate
With the news that Paris real estate prices are still flattening, now is a great time to buy in Paris, especially if you’re looking for a future investment.
If you would like to speak to one of our local property experts, please do contact us.
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