Each quarter, the Chambre des Notaires du Grand Paris publishes one of the most rigorous and comprehensive analyses of the France real estate market. The Q1 2026 report, released this morning, confirms the continued — if labored — recovery that began in 2025, while introducing new notes of caution tied to geopolitical and economic developments. At 56Paris, where we work daily with French and international buyers searching for apartments in the heart of the capital, this latest data mirrors what we observe on the ground: a market that is stabilizing rather than surging, measured rather than confident, and more complex to navigate than headline numbers alone suggest.
Paris Apartment Sales in Q1 2026: Understanding the Numbers
At first glance, the drop in Paris transaction volumes appears significant. Sales of existing apartments in Paris fell by 13% year-on-year in Q1 2026 — a figure that demands context. The Chambre des Notaires is clear on this point: the comparison period, Q1 2025, was itself artificially elevated by a rush of buyers seeking to complete purchases before the transfer tax increase that came into effect in April 2025. Strip away that distortion, and the underlying trend across Île-de-France is actually one of gradual improvement. Over the past twelve rolling months — from Q2 2025 to Q1 2026 — approximately 124,000 existing properties changed hands across the region, up 7% compared to the prior twelve-month period. Paris is recovering. It is simply doing so at its own, unhurried pace.
Paris Average Prices Hold Steady at €9,600 per Square Meter
The most closely watched figure for anyone considering a purchase in Paris is the per-square-meter price for existing apartments, and the Q1 2026 data confirms what many buyers have been sensing: prices are stable. The city-wide average sits at €9,600 per square meter, representing a modest annual increase of 1%. Projections derived from preliminary contracts suggest this level should hold through Q2 2026, with a slight uptick anticipated to approximately €9,640 per square meter by June — an annual variation of +1.5%. For buyers who delayed their search in anticipation of meaningful further corrections, the message from the data is now fairly clear: the adjustment cycle in Paris appears to be behind us.
i) Development of price per square meter for apartments in Paris +1% the last year
ii) Average price per square meter for each arrondissement
iii) Year-on-year price evolution from Q1/2025 to Q1/2026 expressed in "gross index" (120.9), average price per square meter (9,600€) annual price variation (1,0%) raw quarterly change (0,0%) and seasonally adjusted quarterly change (0,6%).
Stark Contrasts Across Paris Arrondissements
While city-wide averages provide a useful reference point, the reality of the Paris market is defined by its internal diversity. Average per-square-meter prices range from €7,530 in the 19th arrondissement to €14,060 in the 6th — nearly twice as expensive. Year-on-year price evolution is equally varied: the 6th recorded a notable increase of +5.9%, as did the 5th at +5.4% and the 7th at +4.8%, while the 8th arrondissement saw prices fall by 6.9% over the same period, likely reflecting the specific dynamics of a market where very large, high-value units can skew quarterly figures significantly.
What the data confirms, once again, is that Paris cannot be read as a single market. Location, arrondissement, floor, condition, and configuration determine value in ways that aggregate statistics rarely capture.
Investment Buyers Are Absent — and That Shapes the Market
One of the more structurally important observations in the Q1 2026 report is the near-complete absence of investment buyers. Notaries describe the current market as driven almost entirely by primary residence acquisitions. The Jeanbrun scheme — introduced by the City and Housing minister Vincent Jeanbrun to revive buy-to-let investment — has not yet produced a measurable effect. This has consequences for supply dynamics and price behavior alike.
Without investor demand providing a secondary layer of activity, the market's capacity to absorb new listings is somewhat reduced, and the recovery remains fragile and, as notaries put it, "en dents de scie" — erratic, sensitive to the slightest economic tremor. Rising geopolitical tensions and the prospect of returning inflation have already begun to weigh on buyer confidence, prompting professionals to revise their expectations downward for at least the next several quarters.
What This Means for Buyers Considering Paris in 2026
For prospective buyers — and particularly for the international and French clientele for whom the Paris market represents both a life project and a long-term investment — the Q1 2026 picture is nuanced but not discouraging. Price levels are stable. Quality inventory in central arrondissements remains sought-after. And while the broader macro environment introduces some uncertainty, Paris has consistently demonstrated its capacity to absorb disruptions and remain one of Europe's most enduring real estate markets.
The current window — before any renewed inflationary pressure translates into higher borrowing costs — may in fact represent a particularly considered moment to act.
At 56Paris, our role is to help clients navigate exactly this kind of environment: reading past the headlines, understanding what the data actually reflects on a street-by-street basis, and matching the right property to the right buyer with the precision and dedication that a decision of this importance demands. Whether you are beginning your search or ready to make a move, we would be delighted to accompany you.
Get in touch with our team today, and let us help you find your next home in Paris.